NFL opening line report: Championship round breakdown

By SCOTT COOLEY, Covers.com | January 18, 2010

For NFL fans that aren't concerned with pointspreads, moneylines or totals and had only hoped to watch "good games", this has not been a pretty postseason.

Only two of the eight matchups in the 2010 playoffs have been decided by less than double digits.

The first three Divisional round games witnessed a pair of 31-point blowouts and a 20-3 defensive battle. All three lopsided affairs saw the favorite cover which equates to the bad guys losing coin.

So as the final game on the board approached Sunday evening, fans were hoping for an entertaining game just as much as the books were hoping for a Jets cover.

"They absolutely needed the Jets to come through (Sunday) to avoid some huge losses," said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "I don't think the books did all that well anyway, but that Jets game was huge. It's hard to overcome three favorites, but that result likely bailed them out."

Weather will not be a factor as we head into Conference Championship Sunday. Both games will be played indoors and three of the four teams that remain in the Super Bowl hunt are dome teams.

Dome teams are 4-1 all-time in conference championship games played on their home turf. The Vikings were the only casualty of that scenario when they lost to Atlanta, 30-27, as 10.5-point favorites in 1998.

The NFC Championship showdown features two dome teams and two franchises that have never won a Super Bowl. The Saints (31.9 ppg) and Vikings (29.4 ppg) were the top scoring teams during the regular season and most are expecting a shootout in the Big Easy.

"You've got [Brett] Favre and [Drew] Brees and they are going to light it up, I don't think it's going to be a defensive struggle at all," said Seba. "It's going to be a couple of gunslingers and I tend to like the over just a little bit. I definitely wouldn't play the under."

The LVSC sent out a total of 52.5 for the game with a pointspread of 3.5 in favor of the Saints. The total has remained unchanged for the most part but some offshore books are currently offering 53 while the spread can be found anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5.

Seba and his brain trust debated opening this number at 3, but concluded that the success of the home teams so far in the playoffs and the short week the Vikings are dealing with would instigate too much action on the Saints. But the man behind the curtain still contends that this is a game between two evenly-matched opponents.

"Really if you take these two teams and put them on a neutral field somewhere it would probably be a pick ‘em," said Seba. "So the pointspread you see is basically the home-field advantage."

It's not March yet, but Cinderella is alive and those glass slippers have yet to shatter.

But back in Week 15, the Colts had a chance to kick Cinderella while she was down. Not just a body-blow, but a kick to the teeth with steel-toed boots that would have prevented the princess from attending the ball.

Instead, Jim Caldwell extended a hand and lifted the Jets to their feet by replacing his surgeon with a Painter. Imagine the bitter taste of irony that will torment the soul of every Colts fan should the Jets pull another miracle from their bag Sunday.

Seba opened the Colts as 7-point favorites with a total of 41 in the AFC Championship and believes New York has a chance for another upset if the team plays mistake-free ball.

"The defense always keeps them in the game but the margin of error is so small for the Jets," he said. "Any kind of a turnover or special teams play that results in a touchdown, it's almost too much for them to overcome. If they can avoid those I think they have a shot."

With the Cowboys and Chargers out of the picture, why aren't the Jets the hottest team in football? New York has won five straight on the road (5-0 ATS) and seven of its last eight overall.

The 2005 Steelers emerged as a Wild Card seed to win three road games en route to the Super Bowl. Rex Ryan has been preaching to the media for three weeks that his team should be the favorite to win the tournament and maybe it's time to start listening.

"[Ryan] is trying to build confidence in his team and it has worked, but you just have to wonder with this being their fourth road game in the last five weeks – that's hard to overcome," Seba stated. "Sanchez didn't have great stats this week but he managed the game well and I think that is the key for them. Having said all of that, I think they are way in over their heads in this Indy game."

Most shops are working with a spread of 7.5 and a total of 40. Seba said the two defenses could get some attention going into this one, prompting the total to drop below 40, but he doesn't expect the spread to climb any higher.

Satiating storylines abound in the Conference Championship round — the Jets' Cinderella-like run into and through the postseason and the Saints opportunity to make their first Super Bowl appearance.

But keep this in mind: should both underdogs pull off the upset Sunday, Favre will face the team he quit on last season.