Pro capper's prop picks for NFL playoffs

By Covers.com | January 22, 2010

Some say that the divisional round is as good as it gets when it comes to playoff football.

I beg to differ.

This Sunday we get to watch the NFL's four best (that includes the Jets whether you like it or not) do battle for a chance to play in the most overhyped game on the planet in two weeks.

Here are four prop bets to make the games a little more entertaining and hopefully a lot more profitable.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Most rushing yards

Thomas Jones vs. Joseph Addai

Joseph Addai is the big underdog in this matchup, and rightfully so.

The Colts don't run the ball often and Addai certainly doesn't hog the carries with Donald Brown and Mike Hart getting their share of playing time.

Still, I like the value offered with the Colts top rusher this weekend.

Peyton Manning may be one of the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen, but even he is in tough against an exceptional Jets secondary led by Darrelle Revis.

Manning threw the ball 44 times against Baltimore last week, but don't expect him to approach that number again Sunday.

The Colts will lean on their running game and the veteran Addai will be trusted for his big game experience. The best part about this bet is he won't have to have a monster game to outduel Thomas Jones.

Jones ran the ball only 14 times for 41 yards last week against San Diego. He continues to see his playing time diminish in favor of Shonn Greene.

Take Addai

Most pass receptions

Jerricho Cotchery vs. Reggie Wayne

Sticking with the underdog theme, I'll go with Jerricho Cotchery in this matchup.

Cotchery has seen his workload increase in recent weeks, hauling in 25 catches over the Jets last five games.

It's no secret that the Jets want to run the ball on two out of every three downs and I suspect the Colts will come up with a defensive gameplan to counteract that.

There's also a good chance that the Jets will be trailing for an extended period in this game and that means Mark Sanchez will be asked to throw the ball more than 23 times, his playoff high recorded last week in San Diego.

Peyton Manning won't force the ball to Reggie Wayne if he's blanketed by Darrelle Revis. The emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie (nine combined catches vs. Baltimore) along with the always-steady Dallas Clark, mean that he'll have plenty of other options. Note that Wayne topped out at five catches over the Colts' final six regular season games.

Take Cotchery

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Most passing yards

Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees

While both of these QBs are capable of putting up huge numbers, I can only look one way in this one and that's to Drew Brees.

Brett Favre's late-season struggles on the road worry me. So does his tendency to get rattled when facing pressure (at least in recent seasons). The Saints brought the heat against Kurt Warner last Saturday and against a mediocre Vikings offensive line, we can expect a similar performance this week.

The Cowboys gave up numerous big plays against the Vikings, with most of them featuring the Brett Favre-to-Sidney Rice connection. The Saints secondary struggled at times this season but now that it's healthy, it's not going to give up many big gainers.

I still have my doubts about this Vikings pass defense. They held their own last Sunday, but that was no surprise, as they've been solid at home all season long. It's on the road where they've struggled most, allowing 228 pass yards per game on 6.7 yards per pass play.

Last week we watched Drew Brees throw for 247 yards and three touchdowns before essentially shutting it down early in the third quarter. Favre and the Vikings offense never let their foot off the gas, yet he still only threw for 234 yards.

Take Brees

Most sacks

This is the best prop bet on the board this week in terms of value.

The Vikings terrorized Tony Romo last Sunday, but don't count on them to turn in a repeat performance against Drew Brees this week.

The Cowboys offensive line really had a tough time dealing with the crowd noise at the Metrodome. The shoe is on the other foot this week, as the Vikings will be the ones that have to deal with the deafening sound of 70,000 plus screaming fans at the Superdome.

The Saints possess the most underrated offensive line in the entire league, at least in my opinion. They kept Drew Brees clean against what had been an effective Cardinals pass rush last week. He likely won't go unscathed this Sunday, but I'll be surprised if he's sacked more than twice.

The Vikings recorded only four sacks in their final three regular season road games. By contrast, they've piled up 10 sacks over their last three home games. I rest my case.

Take New Orleans