Southwest Division Preview

November 5, 2007
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1. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs enter the 2007-08 season under familiar circumstances - as defending league champions. Despite playing in a very tough conference, this team managed 58 wins. And that's with a 67-win Dallas team inside the division.

It's no surprise that San Antonio did it with the best defense in basketball (90.1 ppg against) and with the best trio of players in the league. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and NBA Finals MVP Tony Parker are all in the prime of their careers and know how to win at a championship level. Bruce Bowen, dirty or not, remains one of the premier defenders in the league and specializes in neutralizing the opponent's best player.

Although aging, role players GF Michael Finley, G Brent Barry and PF Robert Horry provide quality minutes and understand head coach Gregg Popovich's winning philosophy. Barring any injuries, the young talents of G Darius Washington and F Marcus Williams will be reserved for garbage minutes, but if these two are willing to learn, then San Antonio has future stars waiting in the wings.

The Spurs are equal with Dallas and Phoenix as the favorites to win this year's NBA title at around 4-1. Oddsmakers have set San Antonio's win total at 55.5 for the regular season, which the Spurs have exceeded somewhat easily each of the past seven seasons.

2. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are the team with arguably the most to prove in the 2007-08 season. Following a 67-win regular season (tying for sixth best in NBA history), the Mavs laid an egg in the first round of the playoffs against the more athletic and energized Golden State Warriors.

Owner Mark Cuban, who is notoriously hot-headed, wisely decided not to implode this immensely talented team. Thus, the Mavericks will again contend for the division, conference and NBA title.

Talks of acquiring Kobe Bryant in offseason caused some waves this summer, but Dallas is not comfortable parting with seven-foot forward and reigning NBA MVP Dirk Nowitzki, and rightly so.

Forward Nowitzki (24.6 ppg) leads a talented Dallas team that includes GF Josh Howard (18.9 ppg), G Jason Terry (16.7), young FC DeSagana Diop and veteran Jerry Stackhouse. To get more experience off the bench the Mavs picked up GF Eddie Jones.

For a long time under former-head coach Don Nelson, the Mavericks refused to play defense, which continually haunted them in the postseason. But current head coach Avery Johnson molded the league's worst defense a few years back into the league's third-best defense last season (92.8 ppg against). Dallas didn't lose much on offense in the process, as the Mavs are one of the few teams to rank in the top-10 on both sides of the ball.

The Mavericks are slated with the highest regular season win total in the NBA at 56.5 wins. Although a duplicate of last season's total is doubtful, over 56.5 is more than reasonable.

3. Houston Rockets

Yao Ming was playing dominant basketball last year before suffering a leg injury that sidelined him for the season 48 games in. He was averaging 25 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. His points per game have increased each of the five years he has been in the NBA and early reports have that number increasing again.

One Mavericks post player claims that Yao is not passive anymore, but rather takes it right at defenders and punishes them. This is good news for new head coach Rick Adelman, who plans on running the majority of the Houston offense through the 7-foot-6 center. Helping Yao out in the post is SF Shane Battier, who contributes on both ends of the court, but is an exceptional defensive player.

The Rockets are not a team short on guards this season. Swingman superstar Tracy McGrady will again be the No. 1 scoring option after averaging 24.6 ppg last year. But a handful of others will offer T-Mac a hand.

Rafer Alston will begin the season at PG, but recent run-ins with the law are a cause for concern. Alston's off-court issues could open the door for new/old Rocket Steve Francis, who Houston breathed new life into over the summer. The Rockets also acquired G Mike James via free agency, G Aaron Brooks through the draft, and bring back both Bonzi Wells and Luther Head at the guard position. Because McGrady and Wells can play small forward in some situations, it is important that Adelman has competent guards to fill in.The key for the Rockets will be health. McGrady has dealt with back injuries his whole career and Yao is coming off a major setback. If the aforementioned role players can give the stars relief, then Houston has a much better chance at maneuvering through a very tough conference.

4. New Orleans Hornets

Despite losing first-year Hornet GF Peja Stojakovic for pretty much the entire season, New Orleans still managed a respectable 39-43 record and remained in the playoff hunt until the final games of last season.

Making this possible was all-world PG Chris Paul (17.3 ppg, 8.9 apg), who continues to build off his Rookie of the Year campaign of 2005. The Hornets will go only as far as Paul will take them and fortunately he's very good.

A healthy Stojakovic will add a lot to an offense that could only manage 95.5 points per game last year.

Keeping the Hornets in ball games was their top-10 defense (97.1 ppg against), more specifically C Tyson Chandler. Chandler only puts up 9.5 points per game, but his 12.4 rebounds per game are irreplaceable.

PF David West led the Hornets in scoring with 18.3 ppg, but had his season also cut short by injury, appearing in only 52 games. With West and Peja on the floor consistently, and the dynamic Paul dishing the ball, this offense should keep up with most teams in the Western Conference.

Giving Paul a rest is veteran PG Bobby Jackson, who isalways in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year award and is a dream coming off the bench for any coach.

The Hornets compiled 39 wins last year while missing key players for huge chunks of the season, so the season mark of 38 set by oddsmakers seems incredibly low. Chris Paul can be counted on for 25 himself.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

Leading scorer FC Pau Gasol was out for a large chunk of their 22-60 season in 2006-07. Gasol was averaging 20.8 ppg before going down with foot and ankle injuries, leaving the majority of scoring duties to GF Mike Miller and PG Chucky Atkins.

Gasol has already been reported as having an ankle injury in the preseason, which doesn't bode well for his status throughout the season. Atkins is gone, leaving the point guard duties to veteran Damon Stoudamire initially, but the hope in Memphis is that first round pick Mike Conley Jr. is everything he's hyped up to be.

Another rookie under the spotlight in Memphis this season is head coach Marc Iavaroni, who is expected to improve this young team.

A lot of the team's improvement will depend on the development of former first round picks F Hakim Warrick and GF Rudy Gay. These two took strides last season, combining for 23.5 points and almost 10 rebounds per game, but the Grizzlies success in 2007-08 will depend heavily on their productivity.